Y-T-D 42-30 +23.12 units
St. Louis +4 over SEATTLE <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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This one should have the precision of five-year olds finger painting. The only reason both are in the playoffs is because of the ineptitude that now plagues the National Football Conference. Strange as it may seem, only four of the sixteen teams that inhabit this conference, finished with an above .500 record. Neither the Rams nor the Seahawks offered very much this year. Both were inconsistent, sloppy and disappointing. That said, both are here and a new season begins with everyone starting at zot. The Seahawks are happy to have a crack at this divisional foe that defeated them in both previous meetings this season, especially on their own turf. However, they’d better be careful what they wish for. To no one’s surprise, St. Louis relies on its passing game. Despite having Chris Chandler quarterback them for a month or so, the Rams still finished 5th in the league in passing. Marc Bulger is back at the helm and if the 450 yards he threw for against the Jets last week is any indication of his current form, the Seahawks 23rd ranked passing defense will endure a very long day. The Seahawks hope to counter the Rams potent passing attack by pounding Shawn Alexander and consuming clock. It almost worked in the first meeting before Seattle coughed up a 27-10 fourth-quarter lead by allowing the Rams to throw for two TD passes in the final 5:34 of regulation before giving up a 41-yard touchdown in overtime. Nothing we’ve seen since makes us believe that the Seahawks can negate that now. While it is difficult to fully endorse the Rams, with their alarming minus 24 in turnover ratio and a lame brain coach, they are still a better choice than a Seattle team that has never won a playoff game under Mike Holmgren and have not covered as a favorite since defeating the Niners back in September. Play: St. Louis +4 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).<o></o>
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SAN DIEGO -6½ over NY Jets<o></o>
It took 17 weeks and 12 wins for the oddsmakers to finally line the Chargers up properly. Week in and week out this San Diego squad played sound and fundamental football in typical Marty Schottenheimer fashion. Drew Brees evolved as the quarterback they hoped he’d be, LaDainian Tomlinson solidified his ranking amongst the top running backs in the game and tight end Antonio Gates would have been rookie of the year if not for the arrival of Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh. The Jets had a decent year that had some ups, some downs and a little bit in between. One of the ups was defeating San Diego 34-28, back in the second week of the season. Amazingly, that was the only game that the Chargers failed to cover all season long. It should be noted that the Jets were favored by three in that game, even with it being held in Southern California. Four months later, the same scenario has us spotting nearly a converted touchdown and we have no choice but to do so. The Jets have not looked sharp. They arrive here on a two-game losing streak despite needing wins at the end of the season. Not beating the Rams in a must win game tells us all we need to know about the Jets. Chad Pennington gets unwarranted respect as he is competent but is incapable of hurting you with the long ball. Pennington relies mainly on the strong running of Curtis Martin and the short passing game. That plays right into San Diego’s hand, as the Chargers are 3rd ranked in the league against the run, just slightly behind Pittsburgh and Washington. The Jets were stymied by a 17-6 count when facing the Steelers earlier. Offensively, few teams have the current balance that the Chargers have. Their offensive line has matured and Drew Brees has been the obvious beneficiary as he threw for 27 touchdowns, compared to only seven interceptions this year. The mid-season addition of wide receiver Keenan McCardell allows them to spread the field and keep opposing defenses on their toes. As mentioned, San Diego lost the first meeting between these two. They trailed 17-0 on two interceptions and two fumbles and despite a decent attempt, they could not overcome those miscues. But it was a lesson well learned and the results should be evident on this day. Play: San Diego –6½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).<o></o>
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Denver +10 over INDIANAPOLIS <o></o>
Obviously, we must negate last week’s 33-14 win by the Denver over Indianapolis as the Broncos were in dire need of a win while the Colts rested their stars in a meaningless game for them. Now the real fun begins and this one could be the most intriguing game of the weekend. Peyton Manning and his explosive offense will try to replicate last year’s 41-10 annihilation of these visiting Broncos. There is no doubting Indy’s ability to do so but we have our reservations. This is a lot of points. If you look at the top five teams in overall defense and offense, only one team appears. That would be the Broncos. If any defense can match up against this high-powered offense, it could this Denver bunch. With Champ Bailey and a strong core of linebackers, Manning will feel some pressure. Unlike other teams, the Broncs can come at you from all sides as 16 different players recorded sacks this season. Having DL Trevor Pryce back in the lineup after missing some games with a sore back, makes Denver that much stronger. Safety John Lynch brings the experience and leadership that may have been missing in years past. Let’s face it; trying to diminish the capabilities of this Colts offense is absurd. That said, we still subscribe to defense trumping over offense. The Colts four losses this season came against the Patriots, the Jaguars, a shootout with the Chiefs and last week’s meaningless game against Denver. Against Baltimore, Indy managed a win but was held to a demanding 20 points. If the Broncos are to win this one, their defense will be required to keep the Colts somewhere in the 20’s and then put the ball in the hands of Jake Plummer. That becomes the ‘X-factor’ here. Plummer can be efficient but can also make silly mistakes that hurt his team immensely. The key will be running the ball, controlling the clock and most importantly, not giving the Colts unnecessary breaks. Indianapolis ranked 29th on defense this season. While that ranking could be somewhat deceiving, it still represents a flaw with Tony Dungy’s team and one that Mike Shanahan’s crew should be able to take advantage of. Play: Denver +10 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5)<o></o>
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Minnesota +6 over GREEN BAY<o></o>
This one excites us about as much as Rosie O’Donnell in lingerie. This being playoff time, we are supposed to see talented teams striving towards the Super Bowl. Neither of these two qualifies. The Vikings won only three of their final 10 games. They backed into the playoffs despite losing a must-win game at Washington last week. Minnesota defeated just one team with a winning record this season, a narrow victory in week 12 against the Jaguars. The Vikes rank down the list on defense, sitting in a not too impressive 28th. The coach appears lost, the team forgets to show up sometimes and they haven't won an important game since Fran Tarkenton was throwing for them. Not very encouraging, is it? When we look at the alternative, it just may be. The Packers almost mirror this opponent. In fact, they could be worse. Although Green Bay won both meetings this season, the wins were marginal with both coming by an identical 34-31 score. The first game produced controversy as Minnesota appeared to recover an onside kick that could have led to a tie or win and the second game was played without Minnesota’s star receiver, Randy Moss. It’s not like Green Bay is some dominant team. They’re not. While we pointed out Minnesota’s one win over a winning team, it is one more than the Packers. How can a team finish 25th in the league on defense having not defeated one winning team? The answer is simple. The defense is horrendous. That is the key here. The Packers can't stop anyone, particularly through the air where they gave up a league high 33 touchdowns. Daunte Culpepper and the Vikings offense has carved this team up like Zorro through a Butterball. In two games this season, Culpepper has thrown for 648 yards and seven touchdowns. Again, one was without Moss in the lineup. While both games resulted in Green Bay wins, both came on last second field goals. The Lambeau mystique is also gone as Green Bay dropped four of eight home games this year and split the past two playoff games played here. This line is out of whack and is predicated on the popularity of the Packers and the recent ineptitude of the Vikings. Don’t let it fool you. Play: Minnesota +6 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).
St. Louis +4 over SEATTLE <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o>This one should have the precision of five-year olds finger painting. The only reason both are in the playoffs is because of the ineptitude that now plagues the National Football Conference. Strange as it may seem, only four of the sixteen teams that inhabit this conference, finished with an above .500 record. Neither the Rams nor the Seahawks offered very much this year. Both were inconsistent, sloppy and disappointing. That said, both are here and a new season begins with everyone starting at zot. The Seahawks are happy to have a crack at this divisional foe that defeated them in both previous meetings this season, especially on their own turf. However, they’d better be careful what they wish for. To no one’s surprise, St. Louis relies on its passing game. Despite having Chris Chandler quarterback them for a month or so, the Rams still finished 5th in the league in passing. Marc Bulger is back at the helm and if the 450 yards he threw for against the Jets last week is any indication of his current form, the Seahawks 23rd ranked passing defense will endure a very long day. The Seahawks hope to counter the Rams potent passing attack by pounding Shawn Alexander and consuming clock. It almost worked in the first meeting before Seattle coughed up a 27-10 fourth-quarter lead by allowing the Rams to throw for two TD passes in the final 5:34 of regulation before giving up a 41-yard touchdown in overtime. Nothing we’ve seen since makes us believe that the Seahawks can negate that now. While it is difficult to fully endorse the Rams, with their alarming minus 24 in turnover ratio and a lame brain coach, they are still a better choice than a Seattle team that has never won a playoff game under Mike Holmgren and have not covered as a favorite since defeating the Niners back in September. Play: St. Louis +4 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).<o
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></o>SAN DIEGO -6½ over NY Jets<o
></o>It took 17 weeks and 12 wins for the oddsmakers to finally line the Chargers up properly. Week in and week out this San Diego squad played sound and fundamental football in typical Marty Schottenheimer fashion. Drew Brees evolved as the quarterback they hoped he’d be, LaDainian Tomlinson solidified his ranking amongst the top running backs in the game and tight end Antonio Gates would have been rookie of the year if not for the arrival of Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh. The Jets had a decent year that had some ups, some downs and a little bit in between. One of the ups was defeating San Diego 34-28, back in the second week of the season. Amazingly, that was the only game that the Chargers failed to cover all season long. It should be noted that the Jets were favored by three in that game, even with it being held in Southern California. Four months later, the same scenario has us spotting nearly a converted touchdown and we have no choice but to do so. The Jets have not looked sharp. They arrive here on a two-game losing streak despite needing wins at the end of the season. Not beating the Rams in a must win game tells us all we need to know about the Jets. Chad Pennington gets unwarranted respect as he is competent but is incapable of hurting you with the long ball. Pennington relies mainly on the strong running of Curtis Martin and the short passing game. That plays right into San Diego’s hand, as the Chargers are 3rd ranked in the league against the run, just slightly behind Pittsburgh and Washington. The Jets were stymied by a 17-6 count when facing the Steelers earlier. Offensively, few teams have the current balance that the Chargers have. Their offensive line has matured and Drew Brees has been the obvious beneficiary as he threw for 27 touchdowns, compared to only seven interceptions this year. The mid-season addition of wide receiver Keenan McCardell allows them to spread the field and keep opposing defenses on their toes. As mentioned, San Diego lost the first meeting between these two. They trailed 17-0 on two interceptions and two fumbles and despite a decent attempt, they could not overcome those miscues. But it was a lesson well learned and the results should be evident on this day. Play: San Diego –6½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).<o
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></o>Denver +10 over INDIANAPOLIS <o
></o>Obviously, we must negate last week’s 33-14 win by the Denver over Indianapolis as the Broncos were in dire need of a win while the Colts rested their stars in a meaningless game for them. Now the real fun begins and this one could be the most intriguing game of the weekend. Peyton Manning and his explosive offense will try to replicate last year’s 41-10 annihilation of these visiting Broncos. There is no doubting Indy’s ability to do so but we have our reservations. This is a lot of points. If you look at the top five teams in overall defense and offense, only one team appears. That would be the Broncos. If any defense can match up against this high-powered offense, it could this Denver bunch. With Champ Bailey and a strong core of linebackers, Manning will feel some pressure. Unlike other teams, the Broncs can come at you from all sides as 16 different players recorded sacks this season. Having DL Trevor Pryce back in the lineup after missing some games with a sore back, makes Denver that much stronger. Safety John Lynch brings the experience and leadership that may have been missing in years past. Let’s face it; trying to diminish the capabilities of this Colts offense is absurd. That said, we still subscribe to defense trumping over offense. The Colts four losses this season came against the Patriots, the Jaguars, a shootout with the Chiefs and last week’s meaningless game against Denver. Against Baltimore, Indy managed a win but was held to a demanding 20 points. If the Broncos are to win this one, their defense will be required to keep the Colts somewhere in the 20’s and then put the ball in the hands of Jake Plummer. That becomes the ‘X-factor’ here. Plummer can be efficient but can also make silly mistakes that hurt his team immensely. The key will be running the ball, controlling the clock and most importantly, not giving the Colts unnecessary breaks. Indianapolis ranked 29th on defense this season. While that ranking could be somewhat deceiving, it still represents a flaw with Tony Dungy’s team and one that Mike Shanahan’s crew should be able to take advantage of. Play: Denver +10 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5)<o
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></o>Minnesota +6 over GREEN BAY<o
></o>This one excites us about as much as Rosie O’Donnell in lingerie. This being playoff time, we are supposed to see talented teams striving towards the Super Bowl. Neither of these two qualifies. The Vikings won only three of their final 10 games. They backed into the playoffs despite losing a must-win game at Washington last week. Minnesota defeated just one team with a winning record this season, a narrow victory in week 12 against the Jaguars. The Vikes rank down the list on defense, sitting in a not too impressive 28th. The coach appears lost, the team forgets to show up sometimes and they haven't won an important game since Fran Tarkenton was throwing for them. Not very encouraging, is it? When we look at the alternative, it just may be. The Packers almost mirror this opponent. In fact, they could be worse. Although Green Bay won both meetings this season, the wins were marginal with both coming by an identical 34-31 score. The first game produced controversy as Minnesota appeared to recover an onside kick that could have led to a tie or win and the second game was played without Minnesota’s star receiver, Randy Moss. It’s not like Green Bay is some dominant team. They’re not. While we pointed out Minnesota’s one win over a winning team, it is one more than the Packers. How can a team finish 25th in the league on defense having not defeated one winning team? The answer is simple. The defense is horrendous. That is the key here. The Packers can't stop anyone, particularly through the air where they gave up a league high 33 touchdowns. Daunte Culpepper and the Vikings offense has carved this team up like Zorro through a Butterball. In two games this season, Culpepper has thrown for 648 yards and seven touchdowns. Again, one was without Moss in the lineup. While both games resulted in Green Bay wins, both came on last second field goals. The Lambeau mystique is also gone as Green Bay dropped four of eight home games this year and split the past two playoff games played here. This line is out of whack and is predicated on the popularity of the Packers and the recent ineptitude of the Vikings. Don’t let it fool you. Play: Minnesota +6 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).
